MD 1468 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Areas affected...Parts of the FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271734Z - 271930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms are possible this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Storms are increasing in coverage early this afternoon
along the east coast of the FL Peninsula. Deep-layer flow is
generally weak, but some veering of low-level winds and effective
shear in the 20-25 kt range near the sea breeze could support
occasional modest storm organization, given favorable buoyancy
(MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg, as noted on the 15Z XMR sounding)
across the region. A few strong multicells and perhaps a transient
supercell may evolve with time, with a threat of locally damaging
wind and possibly marginal hail.
Convective outflow will help to move storms west across the
peninsula with time, with some loosely organized clustering possible
later this afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 25958098 26718155 28148189 29138241 29658249 30278226
30468202 30368162 29158098 27388030 26608005 26248006
26038010 25958098
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN