SPC Jun 28, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few
tornadoes can be expected.

...01z Update...

Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains
early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across
the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND.
Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along
the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from
BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel
lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary
that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing
into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream,
satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is
approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of
Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream
later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the
short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked
increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing
convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate
downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River
region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing
supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds
may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening.

..Darrow.. 06/28/2025

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