MD 1506 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Areas affected...eastern KS and western MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 291624Z - 291830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...An increasing threat for severe wind gusts may develop
into this afternoon with potential for an expanding cluster of
south-southeast moving storms along the Kansas-Missouri border.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...An initially small cluster of storms across
east-central KS has recently produced measured gusts of 47 kts at
TOP and 42 kts at FOE. While deep-layer winds/shear is marginal,
there is potential for thermodynamically driven cold pool
propagation along a gradient of differential boundary-layer
heating/MLCAPE. 12Z NSSL-MPAS runs appear to have well-handled this
initial development and suggest an expanding cluster may intensify
to the south-southeast. Recent HRRR runs have depicted this scenario
to an extent, albeit delayed and maintaining more compact clustering
into late afternoon. Given the weak background shear/forcing for
ascent, confidence is below average on whether a sufficient severe
wind threat will become apparent for downstream watch issuance.
..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39089504 38849425 38199341 37649310 37149310 36689314
36559395 36859484 37249575 37489665 37939684 38359657
39089504
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN