MD 1507 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Areas affected...southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291707Z - 291930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for sporadic tree damage due to thunderstorm
downbursts will increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop. A
watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon within a
continued warm, moist, and uncapped airmass. Deep-layer shear and
tropospheric flow will remain rather anemic leading to slow moving
thunderstorms whose motion will be driven primarily by cold-pool
interactions and terrain features. Precipitable water values across
the area range from about 1.5 inches in the higher elevations of the
Appalachians to about 2 inches in the Chesapeake Bay area. The
combination of slow storm motions and high-precipitable water may
yield isolated, water-loaded downbursts capable of producing
sporadic tree damage. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a
watch is not anticipated.
..Marsh.. 06/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 39557716 39777461 39357385 37917491 36937609 35937879
35018295 35338406 38547936 39557716
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH