SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025