SPC Jun 30, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this
evening  across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More
isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper
Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across
portions of the High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to
eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and
elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and
damaging winds will remain likely this evening.

With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears
likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest
forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of
organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain.
Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of
KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally
stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should
a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of
75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight.

...Ozarks to central KS...
An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is
likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg
MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern
Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual
weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this
evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of
broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain
possible across northern AR and southern MO.

To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of
south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus
for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight.
Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail
are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe
storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS
tonight.

...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest...
Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along
trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA.
Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective
organization is expected to be low.  Still, remaining instability
and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong
downdrafts this evening.

..Lyons.. 06/30/2025

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