Morning showers and thunderstorms currently remain just offshore along the Panhandle and Gulf Coasts, but these showers and thunderstorms will gradually move inland throughout the daytime hours.
Daytime heating and the daily sea breeze will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the state, with the greatest chance along North Florida (50-90% chance of rain).
Embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the peak heating hours of the day.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (45-60 mph), instances of hail and heavy downpours.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Florida Panhandle and Nature Coast where repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms producing intense downpours that could lead to flash flooding.
Rainfall totals of 1-3″ can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 4-6″ possible along the coastal Panhandle and Gulf Coast.
Warm and muggy conditions can be expected as high temperatures reach well into the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat index values will reach the middle 90s to lower 100s (100-102-degrees).
Shower and thunderstorm activity will generally dissipate late in the evening hours, with lingering showers and thunderstorms near the Panhandle and Gulf Coast coastal waters overnight (30-65% chance of rain).
Low temperatures will return to the 70s and lower 80s overnight.
A high risk for rip currents can be expected along numerous Panhandle beaches, with a moderate risk along most Atlantic beaches.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
Near the Southeastern U.S.: A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by next weekend off the southeast U.S. coast, over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low move little. Formation chances are low through the next 48 hours (near 0%) and 7 days (20%). Regardless of development, heavy rains that could lead to instances of flooding will be possible along the Gulf Coast later this week.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.