MD 1529 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic States
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 011548Z - 011745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...An increasing damaging wind threat and Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance are expected this afternoon
DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly building across the central
Appalachians, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough that is
progressing east across the Upper OH Valley. While there is some
near-term uncertainty of how quickly this initial activity will
strengthen amid weak DCAPE, the downstream airmass east of the Blue
Ridge is destabilizing well as surface temperatures have already
warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s. This will yield an uptick in
convective intensity as clusters impinge on the Piedmont to Coastal
Plain where mid 70s surface dew points are pervasive. Although
lower-level winds will remain weak and predominately veered,
moderate mid to upper-level westerlies will support organized
multicells capable of producing multiple strong to isolated severe
gust swaths. Scattered damaging winds appear likely towards mid to
late afternoon.
..Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 40117372 39117452 37967617 37757901 38627929 40127907
40667848 40497568 40117372
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH