SPC MD 1531

MD 1531 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST


Mesoscale Discussion 1531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Southeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011700Z - 011900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts, from predominately wet microbursts
with slow-moving widespread thunderstorms, may produce isolated
damaging winds through the rest of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are underway well to the south
of the primary shortwave impulse moving east across the Upper OH
Valley. With enhancement from a minor MCV near the middle TN/central
KY border, guidance suggests convection will become extensive from
the Cumberland Plateau to the lee of the southern Appalachians.
However, greater buoyancy and boundary-layer heating should be
confined to the Piedmont eastward, with the bulk of convection
expected to remain relegated farther west. Overall deep-layer shear
is weak, which will lend to slow-moving storms and poorly organized
clusters. Still, water-loaded downdrafts in wet microbursts should
support sporadic strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds.

..Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...
OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36608017 35378066 34048335 34068457 35618641 36888589
            37308403 37228299 36608017 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

StormPrep