SPC Jul 2, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast
across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday.

...Northeast...
A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track
southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday.  Increasing large
scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through
the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an
approaching cold front.  A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead
of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE
to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail.  Given
trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have
added a SLGT risk for portions of the region.

...ND...
A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US
tomorrow.  Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will
track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge
overnight.  Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture
northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of
strong instability.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop over
western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds.  Several
12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS
tracking eastward across ND overnight.

...Upper MS Valley...
A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast
MN into IL on Thursday.  Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds
will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered
thunderstorms.  A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk
of gusty winds and hail.

..Hart.. 07/02/2025

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