Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The ongoing wet and active weather pattern can be expected to continue across the Sunshine State today.
- A weak frontal boundary will sweep into the Southeast U.S. slowly today bringing plenty of moisture northward which will help aid daily shower and thunderstorm activity (60-95% chance of rain).
- Widespread rainfall can be expected at times, with heavy and intense downpours that could lead to flash flooding and ponding of water for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding throughout North and Central Florida, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) along the Florida West Coast.
- With daytime heating, locally embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible bringing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph) and heavy downpours.
- High temperatures will continue to remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the state. Heat index values will be slightly cooler with an earlier onset of rainfall, and values in the middle to upper 90s and lower triple digits can be expected.
- Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will shift offshore and dissipate overnight, but activity lingering over the adjacent gulf waters will hover near the Big Bend and West Coasts overnight and will begin to move back inland early Thursday morning (40-60% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s can be expected.
- A moderate risk for rip currents extends across numerous beaches statewide courtesy of southerly to southwesterly winds and elevated surf near 1-3′. A high risk can be expected along Gulf County beaches.
- With several rounds of repeated heavy rainfall over the next few days, water levels within portions of the West-Central Florida basins could see waters reach Action Stage (bank-full) over the weekend or early next week.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
- Southeastern U.S. Coastline: An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the West-Central Florida coast. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days; however, this system will bring increase shower and thunderstorm activity and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.