SPC Jul 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over
the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS
on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely
with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift
northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary
shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will
remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the
western Dakotas and NE.

At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western
Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the
CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight,
maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will
maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with
dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate
overall instability.

...Dakotas into MN...
Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE
into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will
be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into
northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts
and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the
nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more
isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western
IA.

...NE into western KS...
Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough
will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated
afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity.
Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting
southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/03/2025

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