SPC MD 1547

MD 1547 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483… FOR NEW ENGLAND


Mesoscale Discussion 1547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483...

Valid 031617Z - 031815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483
continues.

SUMMARY...Primary severe potential, from isolated to scattered
damaging winds, will be largely focused across central/eastern Maine
and far southeast New Hampshire. Potential exists for a separate
area of storms over the Champlain Valley to intensify downstream
later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A broken thin band of quasi-linear convection is
ongoing from northern ME to the NH/MA border area. The recent
consolidation into linear structures should modulate the earlier
large hail threat. But this will support an increasing damaging wind
risk as storms impinge on a warm/unstable boundary layer downstream.
Low to mid 80s surface temperatures combined with dew points holding
in the low to mid 60s is yielding modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg. Strong gusts will be possible as this initial round
spreads off the coast/into NB.

Farther west, stabilization in the wake of this leading convection
will yield a lull in severe potential. But the primary lobe of
ascent supporting convection across the Champlain Valley into QC
should spread across at least northern VT/NH into western ME through
late afternoon. There should be an adequate gap of destabilization
between the two regimes for a marginal severe threat, although there
is below-average confidence on whether sufficient recovery will
occur for a scattered damaging wind threat.

..Grams.. 07/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...

LAT...LON   45007271 46187063 46966808 46706719 45206680 44646705
            42387090 42437174 43017147 43327174 43607241 43777324
            44017400 44487354 45007271 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

StormPrep