SPC MD 1548

MD 1548 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST


Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...the Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 031657Z - 031900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds and isolated severe
hail will be possible as initially isolated storms increase across
parts of the Northeast. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Initial sustained storm development is underway across
southwest NY, with scattered agitated CU over northeast PA and
southeast NY. A plume of moderate buoyancy will expand eastward from
western/central PA and southwest NY, aiding in strengthening
convective intensity as storms mature. A strong mid-level westerly
jetlet atop already veered and weak low-level winds will yield
hodograph elongation. Combined with weak low-level ascent, the setup
should support generally semi-discrete cells with transient
mid-level updraft rotation. As such, isolated severe hail will be
possible and the overall coverage of the convective wind threat
might be subdued until late-afternoon clustering becomes more
probable.

..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   42777681 42857547 43117355 42927285 42507218 42057209
            41497245 40917352 40807456 41037586 41427685 42297745
            42777681 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

StormPrep