SPC Mar 20, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over Indiana, parts of Kentucky and into Tennessee. ...IN into western KY... A primary line of storms stretches from central IN into western KY and TN as of 01Z, with secondary line of storms along the IL/IN border in association with the cold front. Given the loss of
SPC Mar 19, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO FAR EASTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... 00Z Surface analysis shows a 989mb surface low in west-central Kansas this evening. Ahead of this surface low, a low-level jet is strengthening (now 50 kts below 1km on the KICT VWP). This low-level jet is forecast to
SPC Mar 18, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed beneath this trough as cold mid-level temperatures have steepened lapse rates. 00z sounding from OAK exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, and this seems to be representative across the interior valleys. Over the next few hours nocturnal cooling should result in weaker updrafts and
SPC Mar 16, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as
SPC Mar 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be
SPC Mar 13, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and
SPC Mar 12, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy
SPC Mar 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing
SPC Mar 10, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida
SPC Mar 9, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest