Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report EOC Activation Level: Level 2 Meteorological Summary: Dense Fog Advisories extend across the Panhandle, Northeast and East-Central Florida this morning due to reduced visibility of ¼ of a mile or less at times. Foggy conditions and low clouds throughout the state will gradually lift and dissipate by the early to mid-morning hours giving way to a mixture of sunshine and clouds this afternoon. A lingering frontal boundary remains draped north of the I-4 corridor but will begin to transition to a warm front later today and lift northward towards the Panhandle. Enough moisture
SPC Feb 11, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today
SPC Feb 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into
SPC Jan 11, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward
SPC Dec 11, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible from the eastern Carolinas to southern New England. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed along the western portion of the outlook, and reduced along the southern New England coast. For both areas, widespread stratiform rain has limited destabilization and the overall severe threat. Farther south, severe probabilities
SPC Dec 11, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate
SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, December 11, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report EOC Activation Level: Level 2 Meteorological Summary: A cold front moving eastward will produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the remainder of the Sunshine State today (65-95% chance of rain). An isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorm is possible during the daytime heating hours, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has extended the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather south of the I-4 corridor and along the Southwest Florida Coast. Any stronger or more organized thunderstorm activity may be capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph)
SPC Dec 11, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from
SPC Dec 11, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving into the Canadian Maritimes, a mid/upper cyclone is forecast to progress from the Ontario/Quebec border vicinity eastward through Quebec on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow throughout the base of this cyclone is expected to extend from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. Even with these strong dynamics, extensive surface ridging is expected from the