SPC Apr 12, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains, with
SPC Apr 12, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24 hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate
SPC Apr 12, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern
SPC Apr 12, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes... Isolated, elevated thunderstorms are expected to be the predominant convective scenario on Sunday. An amplifying shortwave trough will move east across northern portions of the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. This will yield deepening of a surface cyclone from the central Plains to Lake Superior. Despite this amplification, poor quality boundary-layer
SPC Apr 12, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills from this afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Western South Dakota... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot jet streak translates eastward into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough
SPC Mar 12, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex late this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over NM/Chihuahua quickly moving eastward into Far
SPC Mar 12, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy
SPC Feb 12, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern
SPC Feb 12, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of the Texas-Louisiana border vicinity through tonight. ...TX into LA... Early evening surface analysis places a front across south Texas into the coastal shelf waters south of Galveston Bay and into south-central LA. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly east
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, January 12, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report EOC Activation Level: Level 2 Meteorological Summary: A frosty and chilly start this morning throughout North Florida and Nature Coast with Frost Advisories , Freeze Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories remaining in effect through the mid-morning hours. High pressure over the Southeast U.S. will give way to mostly sunny and dry conditions across the state (near 0-5% chance of rain). Drier air filtering southward will give way to sensitive wildfire conditions across Northeast Florida and throughout the Peninsula with relative humidity values falling near or below critical thresholds this afternoon (30-40%) . Locally