SPC Mar 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, February 14, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report EOC Activation Level: Level 2 Meteorological Summary: Areas of patchy to locally dense fog that have developed over portions of the Peninsula this morning will gradually lift and dissipate through the mid-morning hours. Localized areas of patchy sea fog may linger coastal Gulf water throughout the day. High pressure briefly building in over the state will allow drier conditions to return to the Sunshine State over the next day or so (near 0-15% chance of rain); lingering frontal boundary lifting northward will continue to serve as a focus for isolated to
SPC Feb 14, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Saturday morning to
SPC Feb 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great
SPC Feb 14, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level
SPC Feb 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed
SPC Jan 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more
SPC Jan 14, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today. Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the coast of Deep South Texas. Weak
SPC Jan 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Shallow, weak convection continues to weaken as it sags southeast across the central FL Peninsula early this evening. Very little lightning has been noted with this band over the northeast Gulf Basin, and updrafts will likely struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2025 Read more
SPC Dec 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western edge of thunderstorm probabilities have been trimmed in the middle MS Valley vicinity, where additional thunderstorm development appears unlikely behind the strongly forced band of convection shifting eastward -- in tandem with the midlevel shortwave trough. Farther west, thunderstorm probabilities were also removed over portions of the Coastal Range in northern CA. Forecast soundings suggest EL