SPC Jan 16, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late
SPC Jan 15, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude
SPC Jan 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more
SPC Jan 5, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave
SPC Jan 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through
SPC Jan 3, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
SPC Jan 2, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected
SPC Jan 1, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today over most of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions prevailing in most areas. Isolated lightning strikes remain possible along the coast of ME for another couple of hours within a belt of strong onshore flow. This threat should end by 21z. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast for today. ..Hart/Karstens.. 01/01/2025 Read more
SPC Dec 31, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging to isolated marginally severe gusts, isolated large hail, and a brief tornado are possible today from the central Appalachians to parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...KY to the Mid Atlantic Region... A potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough will move from the upper OH Valley into NY/PA today, with an associated 80-100 knot mid-level speed
SPC Dec 30, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...OH Valley tonight... An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight. Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL, with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the deepening low will result in