Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 19, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report EOC Activation Level: Level 2 Meteorological Summary: Dense Fog Advisories will remain in effect through the mid-morning hours along the eastern Panhandle as dense fog and low clouds have reduced visibility. Please use caution when driving this morning and remember to use low beams. Foggy conditions and low clouds throughout North Florida will gradually lift and dissipate this morning as the sun continues to rise. High pressure continues to dominate across the Sunshine State bringing mostly sunny conditions during the daytime hours. The sea breeze moving inland along will allow for brief isolated
SPC May 19, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe
SPC May 19, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ... Synopsis ... A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly eastward into the Plains today.
SPC Apr 19, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more
SPC Mar 19, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager
SPC Mar 19, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI
SPC Mar 19, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI
SPC Mar 19, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO FAR EASTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... 00Z Surface analysis shows a 989mb surface low in west-central Kansas this evening. Ahead of this surface low, a low-level jet is strengthening (now 50 kts below 1km on the KICT VWP). This low-level jet is forecast to
SPC Feb 19, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL
SPC Feb 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the