SPC Apr 5, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are still expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update were to trim severe
SPC Apr 4, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARKLATEX TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...20z Update... Morning and early afternoon observations show the frontal zone
SPC Apr 3, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TX TO MIDDLE TN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue to form and move along a stalled frontal zone from northeast Texas into middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky through late evening, with the possibility of very large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes. Very large hail will be possible after midnight from southwest Texas into cnetral Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northeast TX
SPC Apr 2, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across
SPC Mar 28, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A severe storms threat will continue across coastal Texas into Louisiana this afternoon, with primary risks including a tornado or two and damaging wind. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was added across portions of far southeastern Texas into western/central
SPC Feb 21, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight. ...20Z Update... A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the 12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across the
SPC Feb 20, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an
SPC Feb 19, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL
SPC Feb 18, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Low-level warm-air and moisture advection are already underway across
SPC Jan 26, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent continuing for another few