Gulf of America oil and natural gas production expected to remain stable through 2026
We forecast crude oil production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of America (GOA) will average 1.80 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.81 million b/d in 2026, compared with 1.77 million b/d in 2024, in our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We expect GOA natural gas production to average 1.72 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and 1.64 Bcf/d in 2026, compared with 1.79 Bcf/d in 2024. At these volumes, the GOA is forecast to contribute about 13% of U.S. crude oil production and 1% of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2025 and 2026.
EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will grow in 2026 for the first time since 2017
In our March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast crude oil production in Alaska will increase by 16,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 to 438,000 b/d after remaining relatively flat in 2025. Two new oil developments in Alaska—the Nuna and Pikka projects—are expected to boost crude oil production in the state after decades of decline. If realized, this annual production increase will be the first since 2017 and the largest since 2002..
Refinery closures and rising consumption will reduce U.S. petroleum inventories in 2026
In 2026, we forecast that inventories of the three largest transportation fuels in the United States—motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel—will fall to their lowest levels since 2000 in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Petroleum liquids supply growth driven by non-OPEC+ countries in 2025 and 2026
We forecast that worldwide production of petroleum and other liquids in 2025 and 2026 will grow more in non-OPEC+ countries than in OPEC+ countries in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We estimate that total world petroleum and other liquids supply increased by about 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and will increase by 1.9 million b/d in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026. Increasing crude oil production from four countries in the Americas—the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil—drives this growth. Because of ongoing production restraint among OPEC+ countries, we forecast the group’s production to grow
U.S. retail gasoline prices to decrease in 2025 and 2026 with lower crude oil price
In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower
EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 2026
In our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes data and forecasts through December 2026, we forecast five key energy trends that we expect will help shape markets over the next two years.