SPC Jan 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across
SPC Jan 26, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge is forecast over the southern Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves southward across the Desert Southwest. Mid-level flow will become more southwesterly over western parts of the southern Plains, as low-level moisture advection occurs across the southern part of Texas. Although showers could develop late in the period near the
SPC Dec 26, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over
SPC Dec 26, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will
SPC Dec 26, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central High Plains into the Southeast, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the southern and central High Plains. Further to the east
SPC Nov 26, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast/Carolinas... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and surface cold front will move steadily east across the southeast states/mid-Atlantic region on Thursday, preceded by a northward transport of an increasingly moist boundary-layer air mass. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker than on Wednesday/D2, and generally weak buoyancy
SPC Nov 26, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today and tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Occasional lightning flashes are possible late this evening across the inter-mountain West as an upper trough shifts east, but coverage is expected to remain very isolated (sub-10% coverage). Forecast thoughts regarding shallow frontal convection across the Southeast remain valid (see previous discussion below). ..Moore.. 11/26/2024 .PREV
SPC Nov 26, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Friday... While guidance continues to vary regarding frontal timing, even the slower solutions have the front near or off of the Carolina coast by 12Z Friday. The trailing portion of the front will move across the Florida Peninsula during the day. Some overlap of strong deep-layer shear and modest instability may develop along/ahead of the front across the peninsula, but a general weakening of large-scale ascent with time could limit potential for robust storm development.
SPC Nov 26, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Uncertainty regarding synoptic evolution on D2/Wednesday continues into D3/Thanksgiving Day. In general, a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone are forecast to move east-northeastward from the TN Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity toward the Mid Atlantic and eventually offshore, as a trailing cold front moves
SPC Nov 26, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL... CORRECTED FOR DAY REFERENCE IN SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of Alabama, primarily from late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is expected to move quickly eastward from the central Rockies/Great Plains toward the lower/mid MS and TN Valleys