SPC Feb 21, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry airmass will be in place across the CONUS for all of next week. A cold front will move south across the Gulf on Monday. While some moisture recovery will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday, another front will move into the northern Gulf on Wednesday night and keep moisture offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be minimal and severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through the extended forecast period. Read more
SPC Feb 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region. After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to the
SPC Feb 19, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee
SPC Jan 28, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this
SPC Jan 27, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s
SPC Jan 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across
SPC Jan 25, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central Texas, where
SPC Jan 24, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with
SPC Jan 23, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward
SPC Jan 22, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early, with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging develops north of there across southern BC and the