Tag: 4-8

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will preclude severe thunderstorm potential on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. By Day 6/Mon, medium range forecast guidance shows a series of upper shortwave troughs shifting east from the Rockies to the MS Valley through Day 8/Wed (Christmas Day). In response, lee troughing/surface low developing is expected over parts of the southern Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will support modest northward transport of Gulf moisture across parts of

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure over the central U.S. and a prior cold front intruding into the southern Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Sun. As a result, thunderstorm chances will be low. Toward the end of the period, some forecast guidance suggests lee troughing will allow southeasterly low-level flow to bring modest Gulf moisture northward across TX. This may result

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that an amplified but progressive upper level pattern will overspread the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A shortwave trough over the northern Plains early on Day 4/Thu will deepen and spread east over the eastern half of the CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will build over the western states and spread east into the Plains during this same

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will move south and east across the eastern and southeastern U.S. on Day 4/Wed, moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by early Day 5/Thu. Showers and thunderstorms are possible near the cold front across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Day 4/Wed. However, weak instability and only modest vertical shear is expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential. After Day 4/Wed, a mean upper level trough will persist over

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the High Plains vicinity Day 4/Tue morning will deepen and track east to the MS Valley by Day 5/Wed, and to the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Thu. As this occurs, a cold front will move across the south-central and southeast states, pushing offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late Day 5/Wed into early Day 6/Thu. While thunderstorm potential will be possible with this system, severe potential appears limited, given weak

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong cold front will move into the Gulf on Thursday morning with a dry, continental polar airmass to spread across the eastern CONUS in its wake. This will keep thunderstorm activity limited to far south Texas late this week and into the early part of the weekend. Eventually, the moist sector will advect inland across Texas and the ArkLaTex ahead of an approaching mid-level trough late on Saturday and on Sunday. The associated cold

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper-level trough will move off the East Coast toward the middle of this week. Additional reinforcing troughs are forecast in its wake through the end of this week and potentially into next weekend. This will keep a dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS through the extended period. Some low-level moisture will slowly drift inland across Texas and potentially the central Gulf coast by the end of the week, however this will