Tag: 4-8

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Friday... While guidance continues to vary regarding frontal timing, even the slower solutions have the front near or off of the Carolina coast by 12Z Friday. The trailing portion of the front will move across the Florida Peninsula during the day. Some overlap of strong deep-layer shear and modest instability may develop along/ahead of the front across the peninsula, but a general weakening of large-scale ascent with time could limit potential for robust storm development.

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the general pattern on Mon/D4, depicting a midlevel speed max nosing into the central Plains Monday morning, then phasing with an upper trough over the northern Plains. This should then result in an amplified shortwave trough moving across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Tue/D5 morning. An associated cold front will shunt the young moist plume back south toward the Gulf Coast. This trough is then expected to eject

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western