Tag: convective

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast from late morning through the afternoon Friday. ...Eastern NC vicinity... A leading shortwave impulse rotating through the basal portion of a broader eastern U.S. longwave trough will yield strengthening forcing for ascent during the late morning. Some 00Z HREF members, notably the NSSL and FV3 indicate thunderstorm

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb speed max is translating across the central Plains toward the Mid South. This will allow an upper trough to deepen east of the MS River

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb)

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A positively tiled large-scale trough will advance southeastward from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the period. Within the base of the trough, a 70-80-kt west-northwesterly midlevel jet will

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains early this morning will move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and undergo modest amplification. A weak surface low will move swiftly southeastward along with the trough. A warm front will be positioned within parts of the Upper Midwest

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...20z Update... No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest, while a related surface low and southwestward-extending cold front overspread the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak)

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the Northwest