Tag: convective

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO FAR EASTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... 00Z Surface analysis shows a 989mb surface low in west-central Kansas this evening. Ahead of this surface low, a low-level jet is strengthening (now 50 kts below 1km on the KICT VWP). This low-level jet is forecast to

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... Much of the nation remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific. Within this regime, mid-level troughing is in the process of digging across the Intermountain

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible late tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern NE/IA late tonight and early Wednesday... In advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over UT/northern AZ this morning, a surface lee cyclone will deepen across western KS and then move to far northwest MO by early Wednesday. Moisture return in the

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed beneath this trough as cold mid-level temperatures have steepened lapse rates. 00z sounding from OAK exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, and this seems to be representative across the interior valleys. Over the next few hours nocturnal cooling should result in weaker updrafts and

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA