Tag: convective

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Early morning surface analysis places the center of an expansive area of high pressure over MO. This area of high pressure (and its associated continental arctic airmass) is gradually expected to shift eastward throughout the day as shortwave trough progresses across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This evolution will maintain low-level offshore

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Low-level warm-air and moisture advection are already underway across

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning potential will remain minimal across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow is expected east of the Rockies on Monday. Strong surface high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies to the Southeast with a cold and stable boundary-layer precluding thunderstorm activity for much of the CONUS. An upper trough will begin to deepen over the western U.S., and a resulting surface low will deepen over

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong wind gusts are possible Sunday morning, particularly across portions of the Southeast but possibly as far north as the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A vigorous/fast-moving short-wave trough -- embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft -- will move quickly eastward across the eastern quarter of the U.S. Sunday. As this feature reaches the Atlantic