Tag: convective

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of southern Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains, with

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes... Isolated, elevated thunderstorms are expected to be the predominant convective scenario on Sunday. An amplifying shortwave trough will move east across northern portions of the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. This will yield deepening of a surface cyclone from the central Plains to Lake Superior. Despite this amplification, poor quality boundary-layer

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills from this afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Western South Dakota... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot jet streak translates eastward into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Big Horns to the Black Hills... A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the surface, a

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast from late morning through the afternoon Friday. ...Eastern NC vicinity... A leading shortwave impulse rotating through the basal portion of a broader eastern U.S. longwave trough will yield strengthening forcing for ascent during the late morning. Some 00Z HREF members, notably the NSSL and FV3 indicate thunderstorm