Tag: convective

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has waned beneath the upper low across California and Arizona. A few lightning flashes could persist tonight beneath the upper low, but given the boundary layer has already started to cool, expect any additional lightning to be quite isolated. ..Bentley.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery loop indicates a split flow upper-air pattern over North America with a closed mid- to upper-level low meandering over the Desert Southwest. A few showers associated with the upper low may become convectively augmented and yield a couple of lightning flashes. Otherwise, docile conditions will prevail across the remainder of the Lower 48

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity through late afternoon/early evening has been focused across western AZ under an upper low where very cold temperatures aloft, combined with modest low-level warming, has supported sufficient buoyancy for lightning production. This environment was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding; however, buoyancy is expected to quickly diminish as surface temperatures rapidly cool with the loss of

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through the overnight hours along the southern CA coast and across parts of the south-central U.S. An upper wave evident in water-vapor imagery along the SoCal coast will gradually shift east/southeast towards the lower CO River Valley through 12 UTC Monday. Cold temperatures aloft within the upper

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent continuing for another few

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern U.S from Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this flow, a belt of strong low-level flow will be in place across parts of central and east Texas. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across parts of