Tag: convective

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large positive-tilt upper trough will stretch from the upper Great Lakes into the southern High Plains Tuesday morning, and will progress toward the East Coast by 12Z Wednesday. Behind this wave, another lobe of vorticity will drop south across the Rockies and toward the Plains late. At the surface, a strong high pressure ridge will extend from the Great Basin all

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant short wave perturbation is forecast to continue progressing through the crest of blocking larger-scale mid-level ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific, eventually digging across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Pacific Northwest by late tonight. Downstream, short wave ridging likely will overspread the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Basin, in the wake of

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible during the day across central Florida. ...Central FL during the day Sunday... Within a large-scale trough over much of the CONUS, an embedded mid-upper jet streak will move over the Southeast and off the Atlantic coast, as an associated surface cold front progresses southeastward across the FL peninsula during