Tag: convective

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Four Corners into Baja CA early today, and will move eastward into the Plains through Friday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will spread east across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, with nearly 100 kt at 500 mb within the leading speed max. At the surface, a

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Thursday night. ...TX/LA... A northern-stream shortwave impulse should phase with an initially closed mid/upper low in the Gulf of CA vicinity, yielding a longwave trough from south-central Canada to northwest Mexico by Thursday night. Downstream low-level warm-moist advection will foster increasingly widespread precipitation across the South-Central States on Thursday as a surface cyclone becomes established off the western Gulf Coast. Despite ample

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass will be in place throughout the southern

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A closed mid/upper low will migrate slowly across northwest Mexico on Wednesday. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will result in a warm advection regime atop a sub-freezing boundary-layer across portions of Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday. Meager elevated instability may develop within the 750-500 mb layer amid increasing moisture, cold

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... A closed mid/upper low will drift southeast across the Gulf of CA vicinity. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection at 700 mb should eventually yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Isolated convection should develop overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, most of which should occur atop