Tag: convective

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cyclonic flow will persist around mean troughing, from the Great Basin and Rockies across the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. The leading shortwave trough -- in a series of them

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central High Plains into the Southeast, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the southern and central High Plains. Further to the east

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central and eastern TX... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows an upper trough digging southeastward over the southern High Plains. This upper feature is expected to reach eastern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico by

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Little lightning activity is ongoing this evening across the CONUS, with a few flashes noted just off the northern CA Coast earlier. Weak levels of elevated instability ahead of the primary upper trough may support sporadic flashes through tonight, mainly over northern CA. A greater chance of thunderstorms will occur over parts of OK and

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over AZ moving east and a northern stream trough over the Pacific Northwest. The northern mid-level trough will latitudinally expand southward into the central Rockies/south-central High Plains as a ridge amplifies over the Interior West in its wake. As this occurs, a partial phasing of mid-level trough