Tag: convective

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Rain/rain showers, and possibly occasional lightning in some areas, will spread across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. Severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low in the southern branch of a split-flow regime across the U.S. will shift eastward across the southern Plains through the day, before devolving into an open wave and accelerating across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Lower

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms remains very low. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies and northwest Mexico will shift east over the central/southern Plains on Saturday. Increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow associated with this feature will overspread much of TX toward the Lower MS Valley, aiding in northeast transport of midlevel moisture with time. At the

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity. Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated