Tag: convective

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No forecast changes are needed. Thunderstorm potential remains very limited across the country. Occasional flashes have been noted within a heavy snow band in the vicinity of Watertown, NY, but coverage through 12z will remain too limited to warrant highlights. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/ ...Synopsis and

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level low centered over Ontario/Quebec provinces will persist through Sunday, with an expansive area of cyclonic flow across much of the central and eastern CONUS and a ridge over the western states. Surface high pressure from the Plains states into southeast U.S. will reinforce generally dry/stable conditions. With the exception of portions of deep South Texas, appreciable low-level moisture/instability will

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for today. ...Synopsis... Much of the CONUS will remain under the western periphery of a broad mid-level trough, which will reinforce surface high pressure and associated cool surface conditions. Static stability over the CONUS will limit organized thunderstorm potential. A couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over portions of Lakes Erie, Ontario, and immediate adjacent shorelines within lake effect snow bands. However, the

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast (outlined below) remains on track. Thunderstorm potential continues to wane along the central FL Peninsula amid post-frontal low-level cooling; however, latest CAM guidance continues to suggest that a storm or two may develop between 20-00 UTC (though recent trends suggest this potential is low). Along the shores of the lower Great Lakes, Lightningcast guidance continues to

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will remain over parts of Ontario and Quebec on Saturday, with a large upper trough encompassing much of the central and eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, and upper ridge will remain over the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered over the Great Basin, and over the Southeast, providing stable conditions. Offshore winds will maintain low dewpoints

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the eastern U.S. today. Surface high pressure over the southern Plains/Southeast and offshore low-level flow trajectories over the Gulf and western Atlantic are expected to generally limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS through the period, with a couple of exceptions. A front will continue southward over the FL Peninsula, with limited

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the eastern half of the CONUS, while an upper ridge remains centered along the Pacific coast on Saturday. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses within the upper trough will migrate across the Northeast and Great Lakes vicinity. Cold temperatures aloft will support very minor instability (less than 100 J/kg MUCAPE) across the relatively warmer Great Lakes

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail across all but the West Coast States today, with the axis of the primary trough to shift eastward across the eastern third of the country through the period. At the surface, a cold front trailing southward across the western Atlantic from a low initially over the Canadian Maritimes, will move gradually southward across the

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Friday with an upper low over northeastern Ontario. Cool temperatures aloft will extend far south across the northern Gulf of Mexico and FL as well, where a band of steeper midlevel lapse rates will exist. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the CONUS, resulting in a

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front