Eagle Ford natural gas production increases as crude oil production holds steady
In our April Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. annual natural gas production from the Eagle Ford region in southwest Texas will grow from 6.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024 to 7.0 Bcf/d in 2026. The increase in natural gas production comes as natural gas prices rise and demand for liquefied natural gas exports grows. Oil production in the Eagle Ford, on the other hand, has hovered around 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) since 2020, and we forecast it will remain about the same through 2026.
U.S. crude oil exports reached a new record in 2024
U.S. crude oil exports in 2024 surpassed the previous record set in 2023, exceeding an annual average of 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d). Despite this new record, crude oil export year—over—year growth slowed to 1% in 2024, compared with 14% in 2023 and 21% in 2022.
EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will grow in 2026 for the first time since 2017
In our March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast crude oil production in Alaska will increase by 16,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 to 438,000 b/d after remaining relatively flat in 2025. Two new oil developments in Alaska—the Nuna and Pikka projects—are expected to boost crude oil production in the state after decades of decline. If realized, this annual production increase will be the first since 2017 and the largest since 2002..
China’s crude oil imports decreased from a record as refinery activity slowed
Slower oil demand growth in 2024 led to less crude oil processed by China's refineries and fewer crude oil imports compared with the record high set in 2023. China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, received 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, down from 11.3 million b/d in 2023. Even though total imports decreased about 2%, imports from some countries increased while others decreased.
China’s crude oil imports decreased from a record as refinery activity slowed
Slower oil demand growth in 2024 led to less crude oil processed by China’s refineries and fewer crude oil imports compared with the record high set in 2023. China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, received 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, down from 11.3 million b/d in 2023. Even though total imports decreased about 2%, imports from some countries increased while others decreased.
U.S. retail gasoline prices to decrease in 2025 and 2026 with lower crude oil price
In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower
A look back at our forecast for global crude oil prices in 2024
Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in 2024, in line with the $82/b for the year that we had forecast in our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and more in-depth analysis. In the January 2024 STEO, we forecast that markets would be relatively balanced in 2024, changing little from the 2023 average Brent price of $82/b. On an annual basis, our forecast for balanced markets was relatively accurate, as global inventories showed only a slight drawdown of 0.18 million barrels per day in 2024.
Brent crude oil prices traded in a narrow range in 2024
Benchmark Brent crude oil futures prices averaged $80 per barrel (b) in 2024, $2/b less than in 2023. Intraday prices stayed within a $24/b range, between $68/b and $93/b (after rounding), which was the narrowest trading range since 2019. Adjusting the trading range for inflation, last year was the narrowest since 2003. Strong global growth in production of oil and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices, while heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restrictions among OPEC+ members supported them. These offsetting factors kept oil prices within a narrow range.
Improved efficiency is enabling record U.S. crude oil production from fewer rigs
Crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 (L48) states, which excludes Alaska and offshore production, reached a record 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in November 2024, according to our estimate in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published on December 10. Crude oil production in the L48 states increased 3% year over year despite fewer active rigs in most major producing regions, demonstrating gains in operational efficiency.
Argentina’s crude oil and natural gas production near record highs
Crude oil and natural gas production in Argentina are both nearing record highs, driven by increasing output from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which is offsetting declining output from conventional oil and natural gas fields. From January 2021 through September 2024, crude oil production in Argentina increased by 50%, and natural gas production rose by 27%, lifting output of both fuels near the records set in the early 2000s, according to data from the country's energy ministry, the Secretaría de Energía de la República Argentina (SESCO).