SPC Apr 21, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... An upper trough with an attendant 55-70 kt mid-level jet will advance
SPC Apr 21, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu -- Central/Southern Plains... Some severe thunderstorm potential is possible across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Thu. Similar to the Day 2-3/Tue-Wed period, a low-amplitude, and generally modest deep-layer southwesterly flow regime will persist. Southerly low level flow ahead of a southward sagging front across the central Plains, and to the east of a dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains will sustain advection of Gulf moisture across the region. At least some
SPC Apr 20, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...20z Update.. A broken line of thunderstorm activity continues near the surface low
SPC Apr 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest
SPC Apr 19, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more
SPC Apr 18, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, mainly from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated.
SPC Apr 18, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes, mainly from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated.
SPC Apr 18, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will continue early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...01z Update... Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is located over western NE
SPC Apr 17, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this
SPC Apr 17, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - ArkLaTex to the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough is forecast to move from the southern High Plains to the Midwest on Sunday. While some forecast uncertainty continues with regard to exact position of this feature, the overall pattern suggests isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential will exist across portions of east TX into the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a moist warm sector as a surface