SPC Apr 14, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...West to Central States... A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis should occur over the central
SPC Apr 14, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist
SPC Apr 14, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat will be possible. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario.
SPC Apr 13, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will
SPC Apr 13, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move rapidly eastward from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface high pushing into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. The drying behind this system will significantly reduce thunderstorm chances over much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A very low chance of early day convection may exist
SPC Apr 13, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern is expected late week into next weekend. ...D5/Thursday... Guidance has converged to a signal of severe-storm threat centered on Thursday evening as a deep surface cyclone becomes established in the KS vicinity, downstream of a longwave trough in the West. An enriching low-level moisture plume will be advected nearly due north from the western Gulf towards the Lower MO Valley. A stout EML should limit convective development along much of
SPC Apr 13, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe
SPC Apr 13, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and large hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes towards the ON/QC border, supporting gradual deepening of a surface cyclone from 995 to 990 mb. In its
SPC Apr 13, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Sunday from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, and from the Intermountain West to the central High Plains. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Great Lakes and lower to mid Mississippi Valley, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will move into the mid
SPC Apr 12, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of southern Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat