SPC Feb 27, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe thunderstorm threat is low. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Ohio Valley. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature is primarily responsible for scattered convection that currently extends from western PA, arcing southwest along the Ohio River into southeast MO. While much of this activity is not producing lightning, isolated thunderstorms are noted
SPC Feb 26, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one currently over the central Plains and the other farther west over the northern Rockies. The central Plains shortwave is expected to continue eastward throughout the day, moving through the Mid MS Valley and much
SPC Feb 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential will be low to start the period with northerly flow across the Gulf on D4/Saturday. On D5/Sunday, a compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken
SPC Feb 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across the northern/central Plains this evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...01z Update... Modifications were made to thunder to account for ongoing thunderstorm activity across South Dakota and Nebraska and to remove thunder chances across Colorado. As a shortwave impulse continues eastward this evening, cooling aloft and steep lapse rates will allow for sufficient instability for a few additional thunderstorms to develop
SPC Feb 25, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains today into the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Colorado as well. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Early morning satellite imagery reveals an active northern stream, with one shortwave trough progressing through the Upper Great Lakes/OH Valley and another moving into the northern Rockies, downstream of a cyclone moving
SPC Feb 25, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general, the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern Plains and
SPC Feb 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms remain possible across the Florida Keys/far southern Florida this evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...01z Update... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are spreading across the Pacific Northwest in response to a progressive trough that will advance
SPC Feb 24, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough
SPC Feb 24, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across
SPC Feb 24, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Louisiana and across Mississippi. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms continue to be most prevalent over the northern and central Gulf, near the offshore surface low. A few lightning flashes were noted over parts of northern LA into MS, but in general, this activity should continue to wane as winds veer with the passing lead wave aloft. Elsewhere