SPC Jan 20, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper trough will exit the East Coast early in the day, as another positive-tilt trough moves into the central CONUS. This trough will extend roughly from the upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist along the West Coast, with additional disturbances diving south into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a stable air mass
SPC Jan 20, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large positive-tilt upper trough will stretch from the upper Great Lakes into the southern High Plains Tuesday morning, and will progress toward the East Coast by 12Z Wednesday. Behind this wave, another lobe of vorticity will drop south across the Rockies and toward the Plains late. At the surface, a strong high pressure ridge will extend from the Great Basin all
SPC Jan 20, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant short wave perturbation is forecast to continue progressing through the crest of blocking larger-scale mid-level ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific, eventually digging across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Pacific Northwest by late tonight. Downstream, short wave ridging likely will overspread the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Basin, in the wake of
SPC Jan 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential largely appears negligible across the CONUS through Tuesday night. An exception could be along the Gulf Coast. Shallow and highly elevated convection, predominately producing sleet at the surface, should be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday along the northwest Gulf Coast. Mid-level lapse rates will be progressively weaker with eastern extent downstream, suggesting that lightning production will likely be
SPC Jan 19, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively
SPC Jan 19, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic
SPC Jan 19, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore
SPC Jan 19, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold
SPC Jan 19, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and
SPC Jan 18, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday