SPC Jan 13, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and
SPC Jan 13, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough progressing northeast along the middle TX Coast. This feature will lose its identity as it ejects into the central Gulf States later tonight. Scattered, shallow convection is noted ahead of this feature from the northwestern Gulf basin, extending northeast along the LA Coast into southern AL.
SPC Jan 12, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level theta-e will approach
SPC Jan 12, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more
SPC Jan 11, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward
SPC Jan 10, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more
SPC Jan 10, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A trailing cold front attendant to this low will sweep east-southeast across the Mid and Lower MS Valleys. A secondary surface low is expected over the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping richer moisture offshore the western/central Gulf
SPC Jan 9, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the
SPC Jan 9, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest mid-level flow pattern is forecast to remain in place over the central U.S. throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, as a series of shortwave troughs move southeastward through the flow. The northwesterly flow will help to drive multiple fronts southward into the central and eastern U.S, which will keep a relatively cold and dry airmass in place. For this reason, conditions are not expected to be favorable for thunderstorm development across the
SPC Jan 9, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday at mid-levels, a trough will move eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard as another trough moves through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the Southeast, as another strong cold front moves southward through the central states. A relatively cold and dry airmass will remain