SPC Dec 21, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California coast early morning Saturday. ...Northern CA coast... An amplified upper trough will move northeast and approach the Pacific Northwest coast through 12Z Saturday. This will yield a pronounced low-level warm conveyor to overspread the adjacent offshore waters. This forcing for ascent in conjunction with an ample buoyancy plume has supported scattered to widespread thunderstorms around 500-600 miles offshore. This buoyancy
SPC Dec 20, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough centered over the Great Lakes, with this feature forecast to move east into the Northeast and east of the Mid-Atlantic states by late tonight. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will reside over the Rockies with an upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaching the northern CA/Pacific Northwest
SPC Dec 20, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more active southern-stream pattern should evolve next week, with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. One such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across east/southeast Texas on Tuesday/Day 5. Some severe risk could materialize, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be
SPC Dec 20, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ..Grams.. 12/20/2024 Read more
SPC Dec 19, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The upper-tropospheric pattern is evolving back to an eastern mean trough and western ridge for a few days, as a series of shortwave troughs dig southeastward from the northern/central Plains and upstream parts of western/central Canada. Low-level cold frontal passage related to the eastern troughing will render the airmass east of the Rockies too dry and/or stable for thunderstorms over land for
SPC Dec 19, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will limit thunderstorm potential on Day 4/Sun. Starting Day 5/Mon, a progressive upper level pattern is forecast, and a series of shortwave trough will migrate across the Plains to the Midwest. As this occurs, surface lee troughing will support south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and the Gulf of Mexico. Modest boundary-layer moisture will being to return northward across TX toward OK by early
SPC Dec 19, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will largely diminish across the Southeast tonight. ...Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms persist across parts of the Carolinas into the FL Panhandle, and separately over the south FL Peninsula. Within a weakly buoyant warm-moist sector ahead of this activity, overall convective potential will generally diminish. This will occur more rapidly overnight as large-scale ascent weakens/shifts off the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorms will be relegated to the Gulf Stream during
SPC Dec 18, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible into early afternoon across parts of the Tennessee Valley region. ...Synopsis... A continuing progressive pattern aloft will be dominated by two main shortwave troughs: a trailing perturbation now over the coastal Pacific Northwest, and a positively tilted one apparent in moisture- channel imagery near a DBQ-STJ-P28-DHT axis. The
SPC Dec 18, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will preclude severe thunderstorm potential on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. By Day 6/Mon, medium range forecast guidance shows a series of upper shortwave troughs shifting east from the Rockies to the MS Valley through Day 8/Wed (Christmas Day). In response, lee troughing/surface low developing is expected over parts of the southern Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will support modest northward transport of Gulf moisture across parts of
SPC Dec 17, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure over the central U.S. and a prior cold front intruding into the southern Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Sun. As a result, thunderstorm chances will be low. Toward the end of the period, some forecast guidance suggests lee troughing will allow southeasterly low-level flow to bring modest Gulf moisture northward across TX. This may result