SPC Dec 15, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday. The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend from OK/KS
SPC Dec 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western edge of thunderstorm probabilities have been trimmed in the middle MS Valley vicinity, where additional thunderstorm development appears unlikely behind the strongly forced band of convection shifting eastward -- in tandem with the midlevel shortwave trough. Farther west, thunderstorm probabilities were also removed over portions of the Coastal Range in northern CA. Forecast soundings suggest EL
SPC Dec 14, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and become negatively tilted on Monday as it moves from the central Plains to the Northeast by 12Z Tuesday. A surface low will move from northern Minnesota to northern Ontario on Monday with a cold front extending from this surface low to the Great Lakes and the southern Plains. This front will
SPC Dec 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the High Plains vicinity Day 4/Tue morning will deepen and track east to the MS Valley by Day 5/Wed, and to the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Thu. As this occurs, a cold front will move across the south-central and southeast states, pushing offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late Day 5/Wed into early Day 6/Thu. While thunderstorm potential will be possible with this system, severe potential appears limited, given weak
SPC Dec 14, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...South-Central States... An upper trough over the Plains will shift east across the Midwest and into the Northeast on Monday. The bulk of stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will be focused across the Mid-MS and OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across the Midwest, while the southwest extent of the boundary
SPC Dec 13, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and only minor changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks/ArkLaTex... A compact shortwave trough over the Great Basin this morning will move eastward across the southern/central Plains through tonight while gradually amplifying. Related low-level
SPC Dec 13, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin on Sunday morning to the central Plains by Monday morning, amplifying early Monday morning. Lee troughing will persist through the period across the Plains which will strengthen the low-level jet and increase moisture advection into the Plains and Ozarks. Weak isentropic ascent could lead to isolated thunderstorm
SPC Dec 13, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However
SPC Dec 13, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate east from the Rockies into the Plains on Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low will track across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the northern/central Plains through the day. The front will continue southeast through the nighttime hours, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan
SPC Dec 13, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/South-Central States... An upper cyclone and attendant trough will lift east/northeast from the central/southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Only a weak reflection of this upper system is expected at the surface, where a low over eastern KS during the morning hours will generally weaken as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s