EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will grow in 2026 for the first time since 2017
In our March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast crude oil production in Alaska will increase by 16,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 to 438,000 b/d after remaining relatively flat in 2025. Two new oil developments in Alaska—the Nuna and Pikka projects—are expected to boost crude oil production in the state after decades of decline. If realized, this annual production increase will be the first since 2017 and the largest since 2002..
EIA expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices as demand increases
We expect increases in the Henry Hub natural gas price in 2025 and 2026 as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply, driven mainly by more demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage compared with the last two years. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to increase in 2025 to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and in 2026 to average $4.00/MMBtu from the record low set in 2024.
EIA forecasts lower oil price in 2025 amid significant market uncertainties
We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia's oil exports to the global market.
EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 2026
In our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes data and forecasts through December 2026, we forecast five key energy trends that we expect will help shape markets over the next two years.