Gulf of America oil and natural gas production expected to remain stable through 2026
We forecast crude oil production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of America (GOA) will average 1.80 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.81 million b/d in 2026, compared with 1.77 million b/d in 2024, in our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We expect GOA natural gas production to average 1.72 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and 1.64 Bcf/d in 2026, compared with 1.79 Bcf/d in 2024. At these volumes, the GOA is forecast to contribute about 13% of U.S. crude oil production and 1% of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2025 and 2026.
U.S. hydropower generation expected to rise in 2025 following last year’s relative low
We expect U.S. hydropower generation will increase by 7.5% in 2025 but will remain 2.4% below the 10-year average in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Hydropower generation in 2024 fell to 241 billion kilowatthours (BkWh), the lowest since at least 2010; in 2025, we expect generation will be 259.1 BkWh. This amount of generation would represent 6% of the electricity generation in the country.
U.S. hydropower generation expected to rise by 7% in 2025 following last year’s record low
We expect U.S. hydropower generation will increase by 7.5% in 2025 but will remain 2.4% below the 10-year average in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Hydropower generation in 2024 fell to 241 billion kilowatthours (BkWh), the lowest since at least 2010; in 2025, we expect generation will be 259.1 BkWh. This amount of generation would represent 6% of the electricity generation in the country.
New solar plants expected to support most U.S. electric generation growth
In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect that U.S. renewable capacity additions—especially solar—will continue to drive the growth of U.S. power generation over the next two years. We expect U.S. utilities and independent power producers will add 26 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity to the U.S. electric power sector in 2025 and 22 GW in 2026. Last year, the electric power sector added a record 37 GW of solar power capacity to the electric power sector, almost double 2023 solar capacity additions. We forecast wind capacity additions will increase by around 8 GW in 2025 and 9 GW