A look back at our forecast for global crude oil prices in 2024
Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in 2024, in line with the $82/b for the year that we had forecast in our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and more in-depth analysis. In the January 2024 STEO, we forecast that markets would be relatively balanced in 2024, changing little from the 2023 average Brent price of $82/b. On an annual basis, our forecast for balanced markets was relatively accurate, as global inventories showed only a slight drawdown of 0.18 million barrels per day in 2024.
India to surpass China as the top source of global oil consumption growth in 2024 and 2025
India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025, overtaking China this year, according to our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). China’s oil consumption grew by more than India’s in almost every year from 1998 through 2023, with China’s oil consumption regularly growing more than any other country during those years.
Recognizing and Mitigating Global Positioning System (GPS)
Subject: Recognizing and Mitigating Global Positioning System (GPS) / Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Disruptions. Purpose: This SAFO provides information and guidance to operators and manufacturers regarding operations in a GPS/GNSS disrupted environment. Background: Recent GPS/GNSS jamming and spoofing activities reported by civil air operators operating globally pose a potential safety of flight risk to civil aviation. GPS/GNSS disruptions often occur in and around conflict zones, military operations areas, and areas of counter unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) protection. The term GNSS includes satellite augmentation systems. SAFO 24002 Contact: Direct questions or comments regarding this SAFO to the Flight Technologies and
Global natural gas market may experience a tighter supply-demand balance this winter
The last two winters in the Northern Hemisphere were exceptionally mild, keeping global natural gas markets well supplied and balanced at relatively low prices. Prices going into this winter are only slightly higher than last year at the same time based on current forward natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Europe and Asia. If weather remains mild this winter as in the past two winters, we expect a relatively stable global supply-demand balance with prices similar to the previous two winters. But if Europe and Asia experience colder temperatures this winter than in the past two years
First study to quantify global earthquake risk to mineral supplies
GOLDEN, Colo. — A new scientific mechanism for assessing the potential risk to worldwide mineral commodity supplies from seismic activity has been developed by USGS scientists. The methodology was developed through studying copper and rhenium but provides a framework for future studies assessing many other mineral commodities around the globe. Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, leading to supply chain disruptions that adversely affect the global economy. This new study quantifies that risk to copper and rhenium supply by examining the impact of earthquakes on mining, smelting, and refining operations across the globe. Many of the largest