Residential energy expenditures have increased with colder weather and higher prices
Residential energy expenditures for homes heating with natural gas and propane for the current winter (November through March) have grown, and now we expect them to total 10% more than last winter. In our initial Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts published in October 2024, we had expected that homes mainly heating with natural gas would spend between 2% less or 7% more this winter than last, depending on weather conditions. As the winter has progressed and energy prices and consumption have increased beyond our initial expectations, we have revised these forecasts upward.
EIA expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices as demand increases
We expect increases in the Henry Hub natural gas price in 2025 and 2026 as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply, driven mainly by more demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage compared with the last two years. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to increase in 2025 to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and in 2026 to average $4.00/MMBtu from the record low set in 2024.