Tight oil production in Permian drives growth in onshore U.S. Lower 48 states production
Onshore crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 states (L48) has more than tripled since January 2010, driven by tight oil production growth in the Permian region. Onshore crude oil production is made up of both legacy oil production, primarily from vertically drilled wells, and newer tight oil production, primarily from horizontally drilled wells.
Well completions per location more than double in Lower 48 states as technology advances
We estimate that the average number of wells completed simultaneously at the same location in the Lower 48 states has more than doubled, increasing from 1.5 wells in December 2014 to more than 3.0 wells in June 2024. By completing multiple wells at once rather than sequentially, operators can accelerate their production timeline and reduce their cost per well. The increasing number of simultaneous completions reflects significant technological advances in hydraulic fracturing operations, particularly in equipment capabilities and operational strategies.
U.S. retail gasoline prices to decrease in 2025 and 2026 with lower crude oil price
In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower
EIA forecasts lower oil price in 2025 amid significant market uncertainties
We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia's oil exports to the global market.
U.S. wholesale electricity prices were lower and less volatile in 2024
Average wholesale electricity prices at major trading hubs in the Lower 48 states were lower in 2024 than in 2023. In addition, prices were much less volatile than they have been over the last few years. Lower and more stable electricity prices in 2024 were mostly driven by low natural gas prices, as well as increases in generation for some lower cost renewable energy sources and new battery storage capacity.
Improving well productivity helps U.S. oil companies increase production at a lower cost
Second-quarter 2024 financial results for 34 publicly traded U.S. oil exploration and production (E&P) companies suggest increasing well productivity is helping these companies reduce production costs on a per barrel basis and freeing up cash for other uses such as dividends and share repurchases.