EIA forecasts lower oil price in 2025 amid significant market uncertainties
We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia's oil exports to the global market.
California law and refinery closure reflect ongoing challenges for the state’s fuel market
On October 14, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed bill Abx2-1 into law, empowering California regulators to set and adjust minimum petroleum product inventory levels for refiners in the state, in part to address the state's fuel price volatility. Shortly after, refiner Phillips 66 announced plans to close its Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles by the end of 2025, citing uncertainty surrounding the long-term sustainability of the refinery.
California law and refinery closure reflect ongoing challenges for the state’s fuel market
On October 14, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed bill Abx2-1 into law, empowering California regulators to set and adjust minimum petroleum product inventory levels for refiners in the state, in part to address the state’s fuel price volatility. Shortly after, refiner Phillips 66 announced plans to close its Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles by the end of 2025, citing uncertainty surrounding the long-term sustainability of the refinery.
Global natural gas market may experience a tighter supply-demand balance this winter
The last two winters in the Northern Hemisphere were exceptionally mild, keeping global natural gas markets well supplied and balanced at relatively low prices. Prices going into this winter are only slightly higher than last year at the same time based on current forward natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Europe and Asia. If weather remains mild this winter as in the past two winters, we expect a relatively stable global supply-demand balance with prices similar to the previous two winters. But if Europe and Asia experience colder temperatures this winter than in the past two years
Wholesale Electricity and Natural Gas Market Data
(Thu, 14 Nov 2024) This site contains spreadsheets with wholesale electricity and natural gas data from seven major trading hubs that cover most regions of the United States. The data are through November 12, 2024, republished, with permission, from the Intercontinental Exchange.
Wholesale Electricity Market Data
(Thu, 31 Oct 2024) This site contains spreadsheets with wholesale electricity and natural gas data from seven major trading hubs that cover most regions of the United States. The data are through October 29, 2024, republished, with permission, from the Intercontinental Exchange.